To make an estimation of one's motive, you have to understand his background stories and his body languages rather than what he says. The main rationale behind is that what happened to him must leave a genuine impact on him and his body language won't lie. In contrast, his public statement might be deviate from his original intention based on his need, preference and prejudice.
Try to understand an individual's behavior from his life stories since what happened in his past made him this way. I tend to think that all the grownups make the right decisions by their rationale rather than their experience. However, this is not the case.
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